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IDQ21033
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning
For people in Peninsula Forecast District.

Issued at 6:50 pm Tuesday, 18 November 2025.

Rainfall has eased in the Peninsula.

This warning is now cancelled. Other warnings may be current. Please check https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts/.

Emergency services advise people to:
* Never drive, walk, play or ride through floodwater. It is dangerous.
* Stay away from storm water drains.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines.
* Drive slowly and never drive through floodwaters. If the road is flooded or damaged, go another way.
* For storm help, call the SES on 132 500 or download the free SES Assistance QLD app.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and emergency services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQ21035
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Southeast Queensland
For people in Cherbourg, Gympie, Somerset, South Burnett, Sunshine Coast and Noosa Council Areas.

Issued at 12:10 am Sunday, 16 November 2025.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area (east of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe). This warning is now cancelled. Other warnings may be current. Please check https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts/.

Emergency services advise people to:
* Never drive, walk, play or ride through floodwater. It is dangerous.
* Stay away from storm water drains.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines.
* Drive slowly and never drive through floodwaters. If the road is flooded or damaged, go another way.
* For storm help, call the SES on 132 500 or download the free SES Assistance QLD app.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and emergency services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQ20023
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 49
Issued at 6:00 am EST on Saturday 8 March 2025

Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north.
It is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Bribie
Island during the morning.

Areas Affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zone: Noosa to Brisbane.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 6:00 am AEST [7:00 am AEDT]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per
hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 20 kilometres of 26.9 degrees South 153.3 degrees East,
estimated to be 65 kilometres north northeast of Brisbane and 40 kilometres
south southeast of Maroochydore.
Movement: northwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is moving slowly north.
Gales are no longer occurring over coastal or island locations. It is expected
to move towards and cross the mainland coast this morning, with winds weakening
further as it moves inland.

Despite its weakening, heavy rainfall is likely to continue over southeast
Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the weekend.

Hazards:
HEAVY RAINFALL is expected to continue over southeast Queensland and northeast
New South Wales during the weekend. HEAVY to locally INTENSE RAINFALL which may
lead to DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING may occur over coastal
and adjacent inland areas of southeast Queensland as Ex-Alfred moves inland
during today. Separate Severe Weather Warning, Flood Watches, and Flood
Warnings are current for southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are no longer occurring along the coastal areas, but are
expected to be higher than normal over the weekend. However, DAMAGING SURF may
continue with significant beach erosion for the open beaches between Noosa and
Ballina during the weekend. Separate Coastal Hazard and Hazardous Surf warnings
are current for southeast Queensland and New South Wales coasts.

Gales with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS are no longer occurring near Ex-Alfred's centre
or over offshore areas. Refer to a separate Severe Weather Warning for
possibility of DAMAGING WIND GUSTS about elevated terrain, along the southern
border ranges during today.

Refer to associated warnings for Queensland and New South Wales at
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings.

Recommended Action:
For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0644 UTC 08/03/2025
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 26.9S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.5/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 50 nm (95 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  08/1200: 26.8S 152.6E:     025 (040):  025  (045): 1001
+12:  08/1800: 27.0S 151.4E:     035 (070):  020  (035): 1005
+18:  09/0000: 27.4S 150.4E:     050 (090):  020  (035): 1005
+24:  09/0600:             :              :            :
+36:  09/1800:             :              :            :
+48:  10/0600:             :              :            :
+60:  10/1800:             :              :            :
+72:  11/0600:             :              :            :
+96:  12/0600:             :              :            :
+120: 13/0600:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lies off Bribie Island and is very slow moving. It
is expected to cross the mainland coast between Maroochydore and Caboolture
this evening.

Gales associated with the circulation have eased, however, synoptically
enhanced gales with a large high pressure system to the south are occurring
along the northern Byron coast and southern Gold Coast coastal waters. The
morning ASCAT pass at 2303 UTC confirmed gales in this area.

Position is based on radar imagery and surface observations with good
confidence. Dvorak analysis: DT unable to be obtained. MET is 1.5 based on a 24
hour W trend PT is 1.0. FT is 1.0 with CI held at 1.5. Analysed intensity is
set at 25 knots based primarily on nearby surface observations.

Alfred is expected to move westward and over the mainland coast this evening,
being steered by a high in the Tasman Sea. Alfred is expected to cause heavy
rain areas over southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales during the
weekend.

This will be the final Technical Bulletin for Alfred.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1958 UTC 19/11/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Fina
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.5S
Longitude: 132.9E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east northeast (058 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 110 nm (205 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  20/0000:  9.5S 133.1E:     035 (070):  050  (095):  986
+12:  20/0600:  9.7S 133.1E:     045 (085):  055  (100):  982
+18:  20/1200:  9.9S 133.1E:     055 (100):  055  (100):  982
+24:  20/1800: 10.0S 133.0E:     060 (110):  060  (110):  979
+36:  21/0600: 10.6S 132.6E:     075 (140):  060  (110):  980
+48:  21/1800: 11.2S 131.9E:     080 (155):  060  (110):  980
+60:  22/0600: 11.7S 131.2E:     095 (175):  050  (095):  987
+72:  22/1800: 12.1S 130.2E:     100 (185):  050  (095):  987
+96:  23/1800: 12.9S 128.5E:     135 (250):  060  (110):  980
+120: 24/1800: 13.2S 127.1E:     170 (310):  060  (110):  979
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Fina is being analysed as a small system with roughly
symmetrical gale radius of about 60 nautical miles. Position is based primarily
on a scatterometry passes, ASCAT 19 12:24 UTC and OSCAT at 19 15:19UTC.

Intensity of 50 knots, based on subjective Dvorak and objective guidance.

Dvorak: FT/CI = 3.5 based primarily on MET/PAT. Some curved banding has been
evident, averaging 0.7 to 0.8 wrap, suggesting DT of 3.0 to 3.5. The LLC is too
far into the dense overcast for shear pattern, and embedded centre is not
applicable.

Objective guidance (1-min winds) for 1700 UTC: ADT 61 knots, AiDT 48 knots,
DPRINT 52 knots, DMINT 56 knots, SATCON 60 knots.

The environment is marginally favourable for development in the short term with
high SSTs, good upper outflow with associated divergence and abundant moisture,
however northeasterly vertical wind shear in the 15 to 20 knot range may have
been hampering development in the past 6 to 12 hours. Model fields and
observations are also depicting a channel of dryer air wrapping around the
northern flank of the system which may adversely affect development. Vertical
shear is forecast to weaken during Friday and into the weekend with the
environment becoming somewhat more favourable for intensification, although the
presence of the dryer air and eventual land interaction make the intensity
forecast difficult.

The forecast has peaked the intensity at 60 knots but there is moderate
possibility that Fina will reach hurricane strength (Category 3) before making
landfall. Being a small system, Fina may fluctuate in intensity and be quick to
intensify but also weaken quickly too. The reason the intensity is capped at
60kn (category 2) is the uncertainty the role of potentially increasing
northerly shear combined with dry air may play in weakening the system prior to
any impact of the Top End coast. With an increase in confidence of the vertical
shear weakening and the system remaining pouched in moist air, there is a
somewhat increased chance Fina will reach category 3 before landfall.

Consensus of NWP model tracks has the system moving slowly towards the east for
the next 6 to 12 hours before beginning a recurve around to the south later
Thursday. From overnight Thursday into Friday, Fina is expected to move
generally southwest towards the northern coastline of the NT with only a slight
increase in forward speed. In the longer term models continue a west southwest
track which take Fina back over water. Fina may maintain tropical cyclone
intensity into next week before unfavourable environmental conditions weaken
it, either over water or possibly over the northern parts of Western Australia.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/0130 UTC.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).