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Warnings,
Cyclone & Synoptic Situation: [See disclaimer at bottom of page.] Cyclone information is updated @ approx 3:00pm daily AEST. If there is the current threat of a Cyclone, updates will be given hourly. Copyright © 1998-2007 As issued by Bureau of Meteorology: |
Synoptic Situation:
(Updated four
times daily)
IDQ10700 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Queensland State Forecast Issued at 4:10 pm EST on Sunday 5 February 2012 Warning Summary at issue time Flood Warnings are current for various rivers and streams. For the latest warning information please check the Bureau's web site www.bom.gov.au/qld Weather Situation At 3 pm EST, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category 2, was located over the northern Coral Sea approximately 860 km east of Cairns, and is expected to continue moving away from the Queensland coast. A broad area of low pressure lies over the state, with relatively dry and stable air above it. A surface trough is entering the state from the southwest. Forecast for the rest of Sunday Remaining fine over a lot of the state. Isolated showers and the chance of some isolated storms about the Central Coast and Herbert and Lower Burdekin districts. Scattered showers and gusty storms over the Peninsula district. Light to moderate SE to SW winds over the southern and central districts, fresh at times about the South Australian border. Light to moderate W to NW winds elsewhere. Forecast for Monday A new high will move into the Great Australian Bight, maintaining fine conditions over the southern, central and western districts. Showers and storms through the far northern tropics and southern Gulf country. Mostly fine with just isolated showers about the northeast and central coasts and nearby inland areas. Forecast for Tuesday A new upper level trough will move east into Queensland, while humidity levels will very gradually build over the eastern districts, resulting in mainly scattered showers and storms over most areas east of a line from around Richmond to St. George, more isolated over the southern tropics and the flood affected regions. The showers and storms are unlikely to reach the coast in the south due to weak winds in the upper atmosphere. Relatively high humidity levels should result in more widespread showers and storms over the northern tropics. Forecast for Wednesday The upper level trough and associated surface trough should shift further north and east, again producing a region of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern districts east of a line from around Charters Towers to Goondiwindi. Scattered showers and storms are also likely over the northern tropics. Fine over the rest of the state. Forecast for Thursday The upper level trough should weaken along the southern border, leaving most of the state fine except for some isolated showers over the eastern districts and southern border ranges. Scattered showers and storms over the far northern tropics. Outlook for Friday, Saturday and Sunday Showers and storms should remain over the eastern districts late in the working week, before easing and contracting towards the coast as the upper trough moves offshore. Showers and storms are expected to continue over the northern tropics, and the interior should remain fine. The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:45 am EST Monday. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml). |
Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDQ10810 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Brisbane Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea Issued at 2:45pm EST on Sunday the 5th of February 2012 and valid until end of Wednesday Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Tropical Cyclone Jasmine [Category 2] was located at 2 pm EST approximately 840 kilometres east of Cairns and moving east at about 10 kilometres per hour. Refer to the latest Tropical Cyclone Information Bulletin for details. Likelihood of this system remaining a tropical cyclone in the Eastern region on: Sunday: High Monday: High Tuesday: Low Potential Cyclones: There are no other significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop in the next three days. Likelihood of another tropical cyclone being in the Eastern region on: Monday: Very low Tuesday: Very low Wednesday:Very Low NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day. Very low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%, Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50% The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E. Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml). IDQP0005 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. TOP PRIORITY TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 39 Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane Issued at 10:32pm EST on Thursday the 3rd of February 2011 The Cyclone WARNING for the tropical interior from west of Richmond to the Northern Territory border, including Mt Isa and Winton has been cancelled. At 10:00 pm EST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 325 kilometres west of Richmond and 55 kilometres east of Mt Isa and moving west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour. TC Yasi has weakened into a tropical depression. DAMAGING WINDS, with gusts above 90 km/h, are still possible through parts of the western tropical interior and southwest of the state. Isolated SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS moving with the cyclone may produce localised flash flooding. See Severe Weather Warning. Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Yasi at 10:00 pm EST: .Centre located near...... 20.8 degrees South 140.0 degrees East .Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres .Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 32 kilometres per hour .Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour .Severity category........ below cyclone intensity .Central pressure......... 991 hectoPascals Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English. No further advices will be issued for this system. This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532) Please note the Copyright Notice (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml) and Disclaimer (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/disclaimer.shtml) statements relating to the use of the information on this site and our site Privacy (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/privacy.shtml) and Accessibility (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/accessibility.shtml) statements. Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements. Please also note the Acknowledgement (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml#acknowledgements) notice relating to the use of information on this site. No unsolicited commercial email. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST: IDQ20018 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 0109 UTC 29/12/2011 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant Identifier: 04U Data At: 0000 UTC Latitude: 14.4S Longitude: 139.2E Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km] Movement Towards: east [090 deg] Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 1001 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/W1.0/24HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 135 nm [250 km] Storm Depth: Shallow FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +12: 29/1200: 14.3S 140.7E: 050 [095]: 025 [045]: 1001 +24: 30/0000: 14.4S 142.4E: 080 [150]: 020 [035]: 1004 +36: 30/1200: 14.3S 144.0E: 110 [210]: 025 [045]: 1001 +48: 31/0000: 14.6S 146.6E: 145 [270]: 025 [045]: 1002 +60: 31/1200: 14.6S 148.7E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 999 +72: 01/0000: 15.0S 150.4E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1000 REMARKS: Dvorak analysis was not possible, though a FT of 1.0 was applied based on nearby surface observations. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant is situated in a moderately sheared environment with CIMMS indicating approximately 15-25 knots of shear across the system. The low level centre is now visible on satellite imagery and most of the convection now appears to be well removed from the centre. Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant will continue to move east towards the west coast of Cape York Peninsula under the influence of an upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is now deemed a low chance due to a combination of shear created by the upper trough and dry air affecting the system from the south. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml). N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly) IDD10610 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 5 February 2012 Valid until the end of Wednesday. Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria: Nil. Potential Cyclones: There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to develop during the next three days. Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on: Monday: Very Low. Tuesday: Very Low. Wednesday: Very Low. NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day... Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%. The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between 125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E]. Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml). IDDP0002 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology Northern Territory Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4 Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN at 8:00 pm CST [6:30 pm WST] Friday 15 April 2011 A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kuri Bay to Kalumburu, in Western Australia. At 6:30 pm CST [5:00 pm WST] Tropical Cyclone Errol, Category 1 was estimated to be 165 kilometres north northwest of Troughton Island and 240 kilometres north northwest of Kalumburu, moving west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast. The cyclone may intensify further as it moves away from the Kimberley coast early on Saturday. GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay tonight if the cyclone takes a more southwest track. HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause flooding in the far north Kimberley. Please refer to the latest Flood Watch for the north Kimberley, IDW39610. FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts: BLUE ALERT: People in or near the communities between Kalumburu and Kuri Bay, including coastal and island communities, should start taking precautions. Details of Tropical Cyclone Errol at 6:30 pm CST [5:00 pm WST]: .Centre located near...... 12.4 degrees South 125.6 degrees East .Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres .Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 6 kilometres per hour .Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING .Severity category........ 1 .Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English. The next advice will be issued from Perth TCWC by 11:00 pm CST Friday 15 April [9:30 pm WST Friday 15 April]. This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210 DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2010, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532) Please note the Copyright Notice (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml) and Disclaimer (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/disclaimer.shtml) statements relating to the use of the information on this site and our site Privacy (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/privacy.shtml) and Accessibility (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/accessibility.shtml) statements. Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements. Please also note the Acknowledgement (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml#acknowledgements) notice relating to the use of information on this site. No unsolicited commercial email. TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST: IDD20020 TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE at: 1938 UTC 28/12/2011 Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Grant Identifier: 04U Data At: 1800 UTC Latitude: 14.4S Longitude: 138.0E Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km] Movement Towards: east [098 deg] Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h] Central Pressure: 998 hPa Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: Radius of 64-knot winds: Radius of Maximum Winds: Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km] Storm Depth: Medium FORECAST DATA Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure [UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa +12: 29/0600: 14.3S 139.3E: 080 [150]: 025 [045]: 998 +24: 29/1800: 14.1S 140.6E: 110 [205]: 030 [055]: 996 +36: 30/0600: 14.1S 141.8E: 140 [265]: 040 [075]: 990 +48: 30/1800: 14.1S 143.4E: 175 [325]: 030 [055]: 996 +60: 31/0600: 14.1S 145.5E: 220 [410]: 025 [045]: 999 +72: 31/1800: 14.2S 147.6E: 270 [500]: 025 [045]: 999 REMARKS: Position poor primarily based on surface observations. System lies in a moderately sheared environment of 15-30 kt. LLCC exposed with deep convection displaced to the southeast. Due to the presence of a mid level trough, shear is expected to remain at least at moderate levels throughout the systems presence in the Gulf of Carpentaria. As such, the development rate of this system is expected to be slow with only a slight chance of redevelopment into a cyclone prior to crossing the coast of Cape York Peninsula. The system is expected to move steadily to the east under the influence of the mid level trough and strong W steering in an increasing monsoon flow to the north. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia == The next bulletin for this system will be issued by Brisbane TCWC. Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532). Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements (http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml). |
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