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Severe Thunderstorm Alerts: (Check date and time)
IDQ20041
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Issued at 12:21 am Friday, 19 May 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in QUEENSLAND.

The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will
continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Severe Thunderstorm Area Information: (Check date and time)
IDQ20038
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND

Issued at 5:28 pm Sunday, 6 August 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area [east
of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe]. The immediate threat of severe
thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and
further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Synoptic Situation: (Updated four times daily)
IDQ10700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Queensland State Forecast
Issued at 4:30 am EST on Monday 28 May 2018
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 3 June 2018.

Warning Information
For latest warnings go to www.bom.gov.au, subscribe to RSS feeds, call
1300-659-219* or listen for warnings on relevant TV and radio broadcasts.

Weather Situation
A weakening high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will move slowly
southeastwards over the next few days, maintaining an onshore flow and the
chance of showers about the east coast. An upper trough will shift east across
the state today, leading to a slight chance of showers and high-based
thunderstorms with little to no precipitation across the southwest. A more
significant upper trough will combine with a cold front during Tuesday and
Wednesday to produce a chance of showers and storms across southern districts,
most likely about the southeastern interior.

Forecast for the rest of Monday 28 May
A slight to medium chance of showers over eastern districts, increasing to high
about the Sunshine, Mackay and North Tropical Coasts. A slight chance of light
showers south of about Windorah to St George, with a slight risk of a storm
southwest of Windorah to Cunnamulla. Temperatures will be warmer than average
over southwestern districts while remaining near or slightly below average
elsewhere in the state. Light to moderate southeast to northeasterly winds.

Fire Danger:
Very High over the Peninsula district.

Forecast for Tuesday 29 May
A high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will weaken further while a new,
stronger high moves over the Great Australian Bight. East coast shower activity
will begin to ease as the ridge about the coast slackens. A trough system will
move east across southern Queensland, accompanied by a slight chance of a light
shower or storm, more likely near the New South Wales border. Temperatures are
expected to be above average to the north and east of the trough, over much of
the southern interior.

Forecast for Wednesday 30 May
A trough and cold front will move eastwards across the state, expected to clear
the southeast coast during the evening. A slight to medium chance of showers
and possible storms to the east of these features south of Taroom, more likely
about the southeastern interior. The high pressure system over the Great
Australian Bight will extend a firm ridge and cool, dry air mass over southern
Queensland in the wake of the trough. Mostly fine elsewhere in the state, with
a slight to medium chance of a shower about the exposed tropical east. Minimum
temperatures will be below average over much of eastern Queensland, while
daytime temperatures will be below average in the southwest and slightly above
average in the southeast.

Forecast for Thursday 31 May
The trough will extend further northeastwards across the state, driving in a
very dry and cool air mass. Lingering moisture with very isolated shower
activity will remain about the northeast tropics, contracting north to the
Peninsula east coast throughout the day. Fine and sunny elsewhere across the
state. Both minimum and maximum temperatures will be well below average, with
areas of frost becoming more extensive south of Emerald.

Outlook for Friday 1 June to Sunday 3 June
The trough will move further northeastwards during the outlook period, with a
burst of cold, dry air of Southern Ocean origin extending across much of
Queensland in its wake. Shower activity should become confined to the Peninsula
east coast with fine and sunny conditions elsewhere in the state. Both minimum
and maximum temperatures will be well below average, with areas of frost
becoming increasingly extensive and spreading to parts of the tropical interior.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Monday.

* Calls to 1300 numbers cost around 27.5c incl. GST, higher from mobiles or
public phones.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 30 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 3 May 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Coral Sea and none are expected
to develop over the coming days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Coral Sea for the
2017/18 season. The next issue will be on 1 November 2018.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Very low
Wednesday       Very low
Thursday        Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1933 UTC 05/04/2018
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.4S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS SST:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/0000: 20.2S 152.8E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  998
+12:  06/0600: 19.9S 152.4E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  06/1200: 19.7S 152.1E:     080 [150]:  025  [045]: 1002
+24:  06/1800: 19.5S 151.6E:     095 [175]:  025  [045]: 1002
+36:  07/0600: 18.9S 151.0E:     115 [210]:  025  [045]: 1002
+48:  07/1800: 18.2S 150.5E:     135 [245]:  025  [045]: 1001
+60:  08/0600: 17.2S 149.6E:     155 [285]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  08/1800: 16.0S 149.0E:     170 [320]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  09/1800: 13.7S 147.8E:     215 [400]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 10/1800: 13.3S 146.9E:     285 [525]:  025  [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the low level centre of Iris is rated as fair and
is based on wind direction and pressure changes at Frederick Reef and Gannet
Cay.

The system has been sheared for some time, however in the last six hours we have
seen that increase. The convection has decreased and the LLC has moved further
away from the convective cloud. Its move to the northwest is evidence that it is
now being steered by the low level flow indicating that the system is now
shallow.

Despite the significant convection that occurred to the south of the system on
Thursday afternoon and evening the system has weakened considerably in the last
six hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with the LLCC displaced more than
half a degree from the edge of the deep convection. DT is 2.5. MET is 2.5, and
PT is 3.0. Final T is based on the DT and MET with some weighting towards
surface observations.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 30 April 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 3 May 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2018.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low.
Wednesday       Very Low.
Thursday        Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST:
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2045 UTC 24/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nora
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 141.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [169 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0000: 16.0S 141.7E:     020 [040]:  045  [085]:  987
+12:  25/0600: 16.5S 141.8E:     035 [065]:  040  [075]:  992
+18:  25/1200: 16.8S 141.9E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  994
+24:  25/1800: 17.0S 142.0E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  996
+36:  26/0600: 17.1S 142.2E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  26/1800: 17.0S 142.4E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+60:  27/0600: 17.1S 141.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  27/1800: 17.2S 139.8E:     135 [255]:  035  [065]:  996
+96:  28/1800: 17.8S 132.6E:     180 [335]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 29/1800: 18.9S 125.6E:     270 [500]:  020  [035]: 1008
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the LLCC is fair, based on observations at
Kowanyama and RADAR imagery. SSMI microwave imagery at 1700 UTC indicated the
low level centre was located further west by 20 nautical miles straddling the
coast. Recent satellite images indicate that Nora has weakened after moving over
land.

Cold cloud tops have warmed and contracted further south with reduced deep
convection near the low level centre, indicating a displaced mid level
circulation to the south. The equatorward upper flow has diminsihed
considerably, while the poleward upper flow remains fairly good. Significant dry
air has continued to move around the western flank to the northern side
indicated by TPW imagery. Based on CIMMS analysis at 1800UTC, vertical wind
shear remains in the 15-20 knot range.

Dvorak analysis was not available as system is located over land now. Model
guidance is largely in agreement that the environmental wind pattern will be
tempered by the dry air and moderate shear, so continued weakening is expected.
The possibility remains that Nora may travel south along the coast and still
maintain a connection with the ocean. In this case, the intensity is likely to
decay at a slower rate than one would expect from a system over land.

A mid level ridge over the Coral Sea is becoming the dominating steering
influence for Nora as it tracks to the south southeast away from the broadscale
westerly flow through the Arafura Sea. A strong mid level ridge is building over
central Australia as a mid-latitude/mid-level trough amplifies as it passes to
the south over eastern Australia tonight and on Monday stalling the system, most
likely over land over the southwest Cape York Peninsula. The trough moves east
during Monday night allowing the mid level ridge to build eastwards. This will
allow the system to move west as an easterly steering develops. Majority of
model guidance move the system back into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night
under the influence of the easterly steering. Models differ from this point
somewhat on how long the system will stay over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria
and the likely path it may take. Movement will be dependent on the strength of
the mid level ridge to the south and whether the steering will be from the east
or southeast. Re-intensification is possible on Tuesday if the system remains
over water. Overall environmental conditions remain favourable this week, with
low to moderate shear in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria but the influence of
dry air remains uncertain.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
MSL Analysis provided by the Bureau of Meteorology
 
 
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