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Severe Thunderstorm Alerts: (Check date and time)
IDQ20041
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Issued at 12:21 am Friday, 19 May 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in QUEENSLAND.

The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will
continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Severe Thunderstorm Area Information: (Check date and time)
IDQ20038
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND

Issued at 5:28 pm Sunday, 6 August 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area [east
of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe]. The immediate threat of severe
thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and
further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Synoptic Situation: (Updated four times daily)
IDQ10700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Queensland State Forecast
Issued at 4:30 am EST on Sunday 23 September 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 29 September 2018.

Warning Information
For latest warnings go to www.bom.gov.au, subscribe to RSS feeds, call
1300-659-219* or listen for warnings on relevant TV and radio broadcasts.

Weather Situation
A high pressure system over the western Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the
east coast of Queensland, with the high and the ridge weakening over the next
day or two. An upper trough will move over southeastern Queensland on Monday
and Tuesday and will combine with the onshore wind flow to enhance the shower
activity over the southeast of the state, particularly on Tuesday.

Forecast for the rest of Sunday 23 September
A slight chance of showers about parts of the central coast, increasing to a
medium to high chance about the northeast tropical coast. Fine and sunny
conditions over the remainder of the state. Temperatures will rise to be above
average over the southern interior. Light to moderate east to southeasterly
winds, fresh about the tropical east coast.

Fire Danger:
Very High over the eastern inland and far north.

Forecast for Monday 24 September
An upper trough will move towards southern Queensland during the day as an
associated coastal trough moves northwards through far southeast Queensland.
These features are likely to cause some showers about the southeast coast, with
a slight to medium chance extending into the southeastern inland, although
mainly east of the Great Dividing Range. A slight to medium chance of showers
will persist about the north tropical coast in an onshore wind flow. Daytime
temperatures will be near average in the east, rising above average over the
interior.

Forecast for Tuesday 25 September
The upper trough may move over southeastern Queensland on Tuesday, combining
with an onshore wind flow to lead to a medium to high chance of showers over
the southeastern quarter of the state. The best chance of showers will be near
and east of the Great Dividing Range with some chance of isolated storms also,
though there remains some uncertainty in the strength and movement of the upper
trough and available low level moisture. The slight to moderate chance of a
shower about the northeast tropical coast.

Forecast for Wednesday 26 September
The upper trough will most likely shift further east into the Coral Sea on
Wednesday whilst a high pressure system will move east into the northern Tasman
Sea, maintaining onshore winds and some chance of showers about the east
Queensland coast. Fine conditions are expected to continue elsewhere.

Outlook for Thursday 27 September to Saturday 29 September
A new major upper level trough and its associated surface trough are likely to
develop over central Australia and move eastwards into southern Queensland
during the period, leading to an increase in instability over the southern
inland, eventually spreading eastwards to the southeast of the state by next
weekend. These features may lead to the development of at least isolated
showers and thunderstorms across the south of the state. In a similar fashion
to the previous few trough systems, the airmass ahead over southern Queensland
will remain relatively dry, and will strongly limit rainfall amounts. Dry
conditions are expected to persist in the far west of the state. Maximum
temperatures will likely rise over the interior ahead of the surface trough.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 pm EST Sunday.

* Calls to 1300 numbers cost around 27.5c incl. GST, higher from mobiles or
public phones.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 30 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 3 May 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the Coral Sea and none are expected
to develop over the coming days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Coral Sea for the
2017/18 season. The next issue will be on 1 November 2018.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday         Very low
Wednesday       Very low
Thursday        Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1933 UTC 05/04/2018
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.4S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS SST:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/0000: 20.2S 152.8E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  998
+12:  06/0600: 19.9S 152.4E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  06/1200: 19.7S 152.1E:     080 [150]:  025  [045]: 1002
+24:  06/1800: 19.5S 151.6E:     095 [175]:  025  [045]: 1002
+36:  07/0600: 18.9S 151.0E:     115 [210]:  025  [045]: 1002
+48:  07/1800: 18.2S 150.5E:     135 [245]:  025  [045]: 1001
+60:  08/0600: 17.2S 149.6E:     155 [285]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  08/1800: 16.0S 149.0E:     170 [320]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  09/1800: 13.7S 147.8E:     215 [400]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 10/1800: 13.3S 146.9E:     285 [525]:  025  [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the low level centre of Iris is rated as fair and
is based on wind direction and pressure changes at Frederick Reef and Gannet
Cay.

The system has been sheared for some time, however in the last six hours we have
seen that increase. The convection has decreased and the LLC has moved further
away from the convective cloud. Its move to the northwest is evidence that it is
now being steered by the low level flow indicating that the system is now
shallow.

Despite the significant convection that occurred to the south of the system on
Thursday afternoon and evening the system has weakened considerably in the last
six hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with the LLCC displaced more than
half a degree from the edge of the deep convection. DT is 2.5. MET is 2.5, and
PT is 3.0. Final T is based on the DT and MET with some weighting towards
surface observations.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Monday 30 April 2018
for the period until midnight CST Thursday 3 May 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

This will be the final Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region until 1
November 2018.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday         Very Low.
Wednesday       Very Low.
Thursday        Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST:
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2045 UTC 24/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nora
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 141.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [169 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0000: 16.0S 141.7E:     020 [040]:  045  [085]:  987
+12:  25/0600: 16.5S 141.8E:     035 [065]:  040  [075]:  992
+18:  25/1200: 16.8S 141.9E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  994
+24:  25/1800: 17.0S 142.0E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  996
+36:  26/0600: 17.1S 142.2E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  26/1800: 17.0S 142.4E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+60:  27/0600: 17.1S 141.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  27/1800: 17.2S 139.8E:     135 [255]:  035  [065]:  996
+96:  28/1800: 17.8S 132.6E:     180 [335]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 29/1800: 18.9S 125.6E:     270 [500]:  020  [035]: 1008
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the LLCC is fair, based on observations at
Kowanyama and RADAR imagery. SSMI microwave imagery at 1700 UTC indicated the
low level centre was located further west by 20 nautical miles straddling the
coast. Recent satellite images indicate that Nora has weakened after moving over
land.

Cold cloud tops have warmed and contracted further south with reduced deep
convection near the low level centre, indicating a displaced mid level
circulation to the south. The equatorward upper flow has diminsihed
considerably, while the poleward upper flow remains fairly good. Significant dry
air has continued to move around the western flank to the northern side
indicated by TPW imagery. Based on CIMMS analysis at 1800UTC, vertical wind
shear remains in the 15-20 knot range.

Dvorak analysis was not available as system is located over land now. Model
guidance is largely in agreement that the environmental wind pattern will be
tempered by the dry air and moderate shear, so continued weakening is expected.
The possibility remains that Nora may travel south along the coast and still
maintain a connection with the ocean. In this case, the intensity is likely to
decay at a slower rate than one would expect from a system over land.

A mid level ridge over the Coral Sea is becoming the dominating steering
influence for Nora as it tracks to the south southeast away from the broadscale
westerly flow through the Arafura Sea. A strong mid level ridge is building over
central Australia as a mid-latitude/mid-level trough amplifies as it passes to
the south over eastern Australia tonight and on Monday stalling the system, most
likely over land over the southwest Cape York Peninsula. The trough moves east
during Monday night allowing the mid level ridge to build eastwards. This will
allow the system to move west as an easterly steering develops. Majority of
model guidance move the system back into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night
under the influence of the easterly steering. Models differ from this point
somewhat on how long the system will stay over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria
and the likely path it may take. Movement will be dependent on the strength of
the mid level ridge to the south and whether the steering will be from the east
or southeast. Re-intensification is possible on Tuesday if the system remains
over water. Overall environmental conditions remain favourable this week, with
low to moderate shear in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria but the influence of
dry air remains uncertain.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
MSL Analysis provided by the Bureau of Meteorology
 
 
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