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Severe Thunderstorm Alerts: (Check date and time)
IDQ20041
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Issued at 12:21 am Friday, 19 May 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in QUEENSLAND.

The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will
continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Severe Thunderstorm Area Information: (Check date and time)
IDQ20038
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND

Issued at 5:28 pm Sunday, 6 August 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area [east
of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe]. The immediate threat of severe
thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and
further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Synoptic Situation: (Updated four times daily)
IDQ10700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Queensland State Forecast
Issued at 4:30 pm EST on Saturday 17 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 24 November 2018.

Warning Information
For latest warnings go to www.bom.gov.au, subscribe to RSS feeds, call
1300-659-219* or listen for warnings on relevant TV and radio broadcasts.

Weather Situation
A surface trough and associated band of thunderstorm activity extends from the
northwest of the state through the central interior and into the southeastern
inland. Thunderstorms are expected to be particularly active over the southeast
of the state through the remainder of today ahead of a southeasterly wind
change extending from the north. This cooler southeasterly wind change will
progress further north over the southern coast on Sunday, reaching Capricornia
waters in the evening. The inland surface trough and associated severe
thunderstorm activity will shift further west into the southern central inland
and Maranoa on Sunday as ridging builds further about the east coast. The
surface trough will also continue to extend into the northwest of the state
with further thunderstorm activity expected in this region. The inland surface
trough and associated thunderstorm focus will then continue to shift a bit
further west during Monday, while a firm ridge and more stable conditions will
extend over eastern Queensland. A new surface trough will then approach the
southwestern border of the state on Tuesday.

Forecast for the rest of Saturday 17 November
Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeast districts, with some severe
thunderstorms likely. The slight to medium chance of showers and gusty
thunderstorms over the southern central interior into the Central West and
northwest of the state. The slight chance of showers developing near the west
Peninsula coast tonight. Fine and mostly clear elsewhere. Light to moderate
north to northeasterly winds, tending moderate to fresh southeasterly in the
south west. Light to moderate northeasterly winds, tending moderate to fresh
southeasterly in the southwest and also about the far southeast late tonight.

Forecast for Sunday 18 November
A cooler southeasterly wind change will shift north along the southern coast,
reaching Fraser Island in the afternoon and the Capricornia coast in the
evening. Showers and thunderstorms will decrease over the southeast of the
state in the wake of this wind change. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the southern central inland into the western Wide Bay and Burnett,
western Darling Downs and Maranoa districts. Some severe thunderstorms are
likely in this zone. The medium chance of showers and gusty thunderstorms will
extend further north and west into the central interior and northwestern
districts. Mostly fine conditions will continue in the tropics and central
coast, with dry and sunny conditions continuing in the southwest of the state.
Moderate to fresh mostly southeast to northeasterly winds.

Fire Danger:
Very High in the Peninsula, Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, North West
and Channel Country districts.

Forecast for Monday 19 November
A high pressure centre in the southern Tasman Sea will combine with weaker
centres near the east Australian coast to extend a firm ridge over eastern
Queensland. The inland surface trough will shift a little further west in
response to the ridge, resulting in much of the thunderstorm activity in the
state focusing over northwestern districts and the southern interior near and
west of about Roma. The medium to high chance of showers will extend from the
central coast near a coastal trough into the central interior, with possible
isolated thunderstorms over inland parts. The slight to medium chance of
showers will extend onto the northeast tropical coast in the onshore wind flow.
The southeast will be mostly fine with just the slight chance of a shower. Fine
and mostly sunny conditions will continue in the very far southwest of the
state.

Forecast for Tuesday 20 November
A new surface trough will move east towards the southwestern Queensland border
on Tuesday. A moist air mass will extend over much of the interior of the state
ahead of this feature, combining with an upper trough to lead to the medium
chance of showers and thunderstorms over western districts. A ridge and onshore
wind flow will maintain the slight to medium chance of showers about the east
tropical and central coasts. Fine and mostly sunny conditions will extend over
the southeastern corner of the state. Temperatures will remain above average in
the southwest and should remain a bit below average in the southeast of the
state.

Forecast for Wednesday 21 November
The new surface trough is expected to combine with a broad upper trough moving
east into the state to extend a band of rain and thunderstorms through western
districts, possibly reaching western parts of the central interior and Darling
Downs in the evening. Rainfall should clear the far southwest of the state late
in the day as a drier air mass extends into the region in the wake of the
surface trough. A ridge and stable conditions will persist over eastern
districts, with just the slight to medium chance of showers expected about the
tropical coast and over the northern Peninsula in an onshore wind flow. Cool
conditions are expected under the cloud band in the west.

Outlook for Thursday 22 November to Saturday 24 November
The upper trough is expected to weaken while shifting further east on Thursday,
resulting in the cloud band weakening as it moves through southeastern and
central districts with only patchy rain expected. The cloud band will likely
clear the southern coast in the afternoon though the surface trough will still
possibly lie over the eastern interior, resulting in the slight to medium
chance of showers and thunderstorms extending from the northern interior into
the central interior and southeast of the state. Note however there is some
uncertainty associated with the movement of the surface trough and amount of
moisture available for thunderstorm activity on Thursday. The surface trough
should then continue moving northeast during Friday and Saturday, contracting
shower and possible isolated thunderstorm activity into the tropics. A dry air
mass will extend through the interior and southeastern and central districts in
the wake of the trough. Temperatures will remain above average over much of the
tropics and east coast during the outlook period, whilst temperatures should
drop to be well below average over the interior.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 am EST Sunday.

* Calls to 1300 numbers cost around 27.5c incl. GST, higher from mobiles or
public phones.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Saturday 17 November 2018
for the period until midnight EST Tuesday 20 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday          Very low
Monday          Very low
Tuesday         Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1933 UTC 05/04/2018
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Iris
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 20.4S
Longitude: 153.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [148 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS SST:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  06/0000: 20.2S 152.8E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]:  998
+12:  06/0600: 19.9S 152.4E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1000
+18:  06/1200: 19.7S 152.1E:     080 [150]:  025  [045]: 1002
+24:  06/1800: 19.5S 151.6E:     095 [175]:  025  [045]: 1002
+36:  07/0600: 18.9S 151.0E:     115 [210]:  025  [045]: 1002
+48:  07/1800: 18.2S 150.5E:     135 [245]:  025  [045]: 1001
+60:  08/0600: 17.2S 149.6E:     155 [285]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  08/1800: 16.0S 149.0E:     170 [320]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  09/1800: 13.7S 147.8E:     215 [400]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 10/1800: 13.3S 146.9E:     285 [525]:  025  [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the low level centre of Iris is rated as fair and
is based on wind direction and pressure changes at Frederick Reef and Gannet
Cay.

The system has been sheared for some time, however in the last six hours we have
seen that increase. The convection has decreased and the LLC has moved further
away from the convective cloud. Its move to the northwest is evidence that it is
now being steered by the low level flow indicating that the system is now
shallow.

Despite the significant convection that occurred to the south of the system on
Thursday afternoon and evening the system has weakened considerably in the last
six hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern with the LLCC displaced more than
half a degree from the edge of the deep convection. DT is 2.5. MET is 2.5, and
PT is 3.0. Final T is based on the DT and MET with some weighting towards
surface observations.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 06/0130 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Saturday 17 November 2018
for the period until midnight CST Tuesday 20 November 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant tropical lows in the region and none are expected to
develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday          Very low.
Monday          Very low.
Tuesday         Very low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST:
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2045 UTC 24/03/2018
Name: Tropical Cyclone Nora
Identifier: 22U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 141.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south [169 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: over land
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1003 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm [370 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/0000: 16.0S 141.7E:     020 [040]:  045  [085]:  987
+12:  25/0600: 16.5S 141.8E:     035 [065]:  040  [075]:  992
+18:  25/1200: 16.8S 141.9E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  994
+24:  25/1800: 17.0S 142.0E:     060 [110]:  030  [055]:  996
+36:  26/0600: 17.1S 142.2E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  26/1800: 17.0S 142.4E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+60:  27/0600: 17.1S 141.9E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  998
+72:  27/1800: 17.2S 139.8E:     135 [255]:  035  [065]:  996
+96:  28/1800: 17.8S 132.6E:     180 [335]:  025  [045]: 1004
+120: 29/1800: 18.9S 125.6E:     270 [500]:  020  [035]: 1008
REMARKS:
Confidence in the location of the LLCC is fair, based on observations at
Kowanyama and RADAR imagery. SSMI microwave imagery at 1700 UTC indicated the
low level centre was located further west by 20 nautical miles straddling the
coast. Recent satellite images indicate that Nora has weakened after moving over
land.

Cold cloud tops have warmed and contracted further south with reduced deep
convection near the low level centre, indicating a displaced mid level
circulation to the south. The equatorward upper flow has diminsihed
considerably, while the poleward upper flow remains fairly good. Significant dry
air has continued to move around the western flank to the northern side
indicated by TPW imagery. Based on CIMMS analysis at 1800UTC, vertical wind
shear remains in the 15-20 knot range.

Dvorak analysis was not available as system is located over land now. Model
guidance is largely in agreement that the environmental wind pattern will be
tempered by the dry air and moderate shear, so continued weakening is expected.
The possibility remains that Nora may travel south along the coast and still
maintain a connection with the ocean. In this case, the intensity is likely to
decay at a slower rate than one would expect from a system over land.

A mid level ridge over the Coral Sea is becoming the dominating steering
influence for Nora as it tracks to the south southeast away from the broadscale
westerly flow through the Arafura Sea. A strong mid level ridge is building over
central Australia as a mid-latitude/mid-level trough amplifies as it passes to
the south over eastern Australia tonight and on Monday stalling the system, most
likely over land over the southwest Cape York Peninsula. The trough moves east
during Monday night allowing the mid level ridge to build eastwards. This will
allow the system to move west as an easterly steering develops. Majority of
model guidance move the system back into the Gulf of Carpentaria on Monday night
under the influence of the easterly steering. Models differ from this point
somewhat on how long the system will stay over water in the Gulf of Carpentaria
and the likely path it may take. Movement will be dependent on the strength of
the mid level ridge to the south and whether the steering will be from the east
or southeast. Re-intensification is possible on Tuesday if the system remains
over water. Overall environmental conditions remain favourable this week, with
low to moderate shear in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria but the influence of
dry air remains uncertain.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0200 UTC by Darwin TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
MSL Analysis provided by the Bureau of Meteorology
 
 
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