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Severe Thunderstorm Alerts: (Check date and time)
IDQ20041
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

Issued at 12:21 am Friday, 19 May 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer occurring in QUEENSLAND.

The immediate threat of severe thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will
continue to be monitored and further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Severe Thunderstorm Area Information: (Check date and time)
IDQ20038
Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Regional Office


TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

CANCELLATION SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND

Issued at 5:28 pm Sunday, 6 August 2017.

Severe thunderstorms are no longer affecting the Southeast Queensland area [east
of Dalby from Rainbow Beach to Stanthorpe]. The immediate threat of severe
thunderstorms has passed, but the situation will continue to be monitored and
further warnings will be issued if necessary.

Queensland Fire and Emergency Services advises that people should:
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* Never drive, walk or ride through flood waters. If it's flooded, forget it.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.


Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 219. The Bureau and Queensland Fire
and Emergency Services would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Synoptic Situation: (Updated four times daily)
IDQ10700
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Queensland State Forecast
Issued at 4:30 pm EST on Thursday 17 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 24 January 2019.

Warning Information
For latest warnings go to www.bom.gov.au, subscribe to RSS feeds, call
1300-659-219* or listen for warnings on relevant TV and radio broadcasts.

Weather Situation
A moist and unstable air mass will persist across the far north of the state
over the next few days resulting in some showers and isolated thunderstorms. A
slight to medium chance of showers about the northeast tropical coast, as a
trough remains slow moving over the northern Coral Sea. Weak instability will
combine with hot conditions to result in isolated gusty thunderstorms over
parts of southwest Queensland during the next few days, but with little
rainfall expected. A ridge of high pressure will extend over southeastern
Queensland and the central interior through the forecast period, resulting in
fine conditions. Hot conditions in the west of the state and across the
southern interior over the next couple of days.

Forecast for the rest of Thursday 17 January
A slight chance of showers along the east coast, increasing to a medium to high
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern Peninsula and Gulf
Country coast. The slight chance of a high based shower or gusty thunderstorm
with little or no rainfall over the southern and southwestern interior. Mostly
clear elsewhere. Mainly light to moderate east to northeasterly winds.

Forecast for Friday 18 January
The high in the Tasman Sea will continue to extend a ridge along the east coast
and eastern Queensland. A weak trough will remain slow moving across northern
Cape York Peninsula, while another weak trough may move westwards from the
Coral Sea towards the north tropical coast. A moist and unstable air mass will
persist about the far north of the state with a high chance of showers and
thunderstorms expected. The slight chance of a shower about much of the east
coast, increasing to a medium to high chance about the eastern tropical coast.
Fine and mostly sunny conditions are expected over remaining parts of the
state. Hot conditions will continue over much of western and southern
Queensland. Light to moderate north to northeast winds, fresh and gusty at
times in the southwest during the day.

Fire Danger:
Very high over the Central Highlands and Coalfields, Maranoa and Warrego and
Darling Downs and Granite Belt districts.

Forecast for Saturday 19 January
The weak high pressure centre in the Tasman Sea will likely drift further north
towards the southern Coral Sea during the outlook period whilst a slow moving
surface trough will develop near the far southwest corner of Queensland. A
moist and unstable air mass will persist about the far north of the state with
a moderate to high chance of showers and thunderstorms expected. The slight
chance of a shower about much of the east coast, increasing to a medium to high
chance about the eastern tropical coast. Hot conditions will continue over much
of western and southern districts.

Forecast for Sunday 20 January
A new high pressure system should develop over the Tasman Sea and reinforce the
ridge along the east coast of Queensland whilst the slow moving surface trough
will persist over the interior of Queensland. A moist and unstable air mass
about the far north of the state will lead to a medium to high chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The slight chance of a shower about much of the east
coast, increasing to a medium to high chance about the eastern tropical coast.
The slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the southern interior near
the slow moving surface trough. Fine and mostly sunny conditions are expected
over remaining parts of the state. Hot conditions will continue over much of
western and southern districts.

Forecast for Monday 21 January
The high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will maintain the ridge along the
east coast of Queensland. Winds over the interior will turn more northerly
ahead of a trough over central Australia. A moist and unstable air mass about
the far north of the state and possible monsoon trough over the Torres Strait
will lead to an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over the far
north. The slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the southern
interior near a slow moving surface trough. Fine and mostly sunny conditions
are expected over remaining parts of the state. Hot conditions will continue
over much of western and southern districts.

Outlook for Tuesday 22 January to Thursday 24 January
The high pressure system over the Tasman Sea will drift slowly eastwards and
weaken, maintaining the ridge along the east coast of Queensland during the
outlook period. Winds over the interior will turn more northerly ahead of a
trough over central Australia. Possible monsoon trough developing over the
Torres Strait as mid level northwesterly winds increase. A moist and unstable
air mass about the far north of the state and possible monsoon trough will lead
to a high chance of showers and thunderstorms over the far north. The slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms over the southern interior. Fine and mostly
sunny conditions are expected over remaining parts of the state. Hot conditions
will continue over much of western and southern districts.

The next routine forecast will be issued at 4:30 am EST Friday.

* Calls to 1300 numbers cost around 27.5c incl. GST, higher from mobiles or
public phones.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
Qld. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Thursday 17 January 2019
for the period until midnight EST Sunday 20 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Eastern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are no significant lows in the region and none are expected to develop
over the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday          Very low
Saturday        Very low
Sunday          Very low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea
west of 160E.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - EAST COAST:
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0039 UTC 08/01/2019
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Penny
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.3S
Longitude: 150.8E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [229 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm [295 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  08/0600: 19.7S 150.2E:     025 [050]:  035  [065]:  997
+12:  08/1200: 19.8S 149.6E:     040 [070]:  035  [065]:  997
+18:  08/1800: 19.9S 148.9E:     050 [095]:  035  [065]:  997
+24:  09/0000: 20.0S 148.3E:     065 [120]:  035  [065]:  997
+36:  09/1200: 19.9S 147.0E:     085 [155]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  10/0000: 19.3S 145.3E:     105 [190]:  030  [055]: 1001
+60:  10/1200: 18.5S 143.2E:     120 [225]:  025  [045]: 1002
+72:  11/0000:             :              :            :
+96:  12/0000:             :              :            :
+120: 13/0000:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
Ex-tropical cyclone Penny is generally moving in a southwesterly direction
towards the Queensland east coast and it appears to be maintaining a track south
of the forecast track. Visible satellite imagery clearly shows an exposed low
level centre this morning with any remaining deep convection displaced well to
the southwest of the centre.

The latest Dvorak analysis was based on a shear pattern with the low level
centre estimated to be over a degree and a half from any remaining deep
convection, giving a generous DT of 1.0. MET and PAT were also 1.0. FT was based
on MET and the CI was maintained at 2.0. Most objective guidance including
SATCON, CIMSS ADT and NESDIS ADT maintain a system with maximum sustained winds
of between 37-43 knots [1-minute average] near the centre. The current intensity
of the system is therefore analysed to be 35 knots.

According to the CIMSS vertical shear product, Penny currently exists in a low
to moderate wind shear environment with an estimated northeasterly shear
magnitude of around 7-12 knots. Dry mid-level air associated with a weak upper
low to the west of the system continues to be entrained into the circulation and
hampering development. Sea surface temperatures along the forecast path in the
Coral Sea are around 27-28 degrees. Penny is now rated a low chance of forming
into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Queensland east coast given the
number of factors that are likely to inhibit any redevelopment.

Penny is being steered in a southwesterly direction under the influence of a low
to mid level ridge situated to the south of the system. Based on the current
forecast track, Penny is set to move onto the Queensland east coast during
Wednesday morning, but the scenario of it crossing as early as tonight cannot be
ruled out. The most recent forecast track has been updated to reflect the
continuing trend of the system taking a more southward and faster track towards
the Queensland east cost.

Although Penny remains as a tropical low, it is still expected to produce heavy
rainfall and damaging winds about areas of the central and tropical east coast
of Queensland, including the Whitsunday Islands, during today. These conditions
may spread to nearby, adjacent inland areas into tonight and during Wednesday. A
Severe Weather Warning is current and can be viewed at
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/. A Flood Watch is current for coastal
catchments between St Lawrence and Cape Tribulation.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

N.T. Current Cyclone Situation: (Updated Hourly)
IDD10610
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Northern Region, including the Gulf of Carpentaria
Issued at 2:15 pm CST on Thursday 17 January 2019
for the period until midnight CST Sunday 20 January 2019.

Existing Cyclones in the  Northern Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A weak trough
is located through the Timor and Arafura seas.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday          Very Low.
Saturday        Very Low.
Sunday          Very Low.



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:     less than 5%                 Moderate:     20 to 50%
Low:          5% to 20%                    High:         over  50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor (northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E).


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).

 IDDP0002
 Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
 Northern Territory
 Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN - NORTH COAST:
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1951 UTC 13/12/2018
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.3S
Longitude: 137.3E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [117 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [8 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots [195 km/h]
Central Pressure: 965 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm [35 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm [20 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  14/0000: 15.1S 138.1E:     030 [060]:  085  [155]:  958
+12:  14/0600: 15.3S 139.3E:     045 [080]:  090  [165]:  955
+18:  14/1200: 15.7S 140.6E:     055 [105]:  090  [165]:  955
+24:  14/1800: 16.2S 141.6E:     070 [130]:  075  [140]:  968
+36:  15/0600: 17.5S 143.8E:     090 [165]:  040  [075]:  998
+48:  15/1800: 18.8S 145.8E:     110 [200]:  040  [075]:  999
+60:  16/0600: 20.1S 147.3E:     130 [235]:  040  [075]:  998
+72:  16/1800: 21.3S 148.5E:     145 [270]:  040  [075]:  996
+96:  17/1800:             :              :            :
+120: 18/1800:             :              :            :
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen is a small system making Dvorak analysis
problematic. An unclear DT of around 3.5-4.0, however microwave imagery from
1823 UTC shows a strong and compact system with deep convection wrapping around
the centre, suggesting a much stronger system.  SATCON is also suggesting an
intense cyclone around 79 knots [1 min]. The Dvorak 24hr trend is a slight
weakening [W-], giving MET 3.5 and PAT of 3.5. CI maintained at 4.5. NESDIS ADT
at 1800 UTC was 4.8 [Raw 3.7] and CIMSS ADT at 1700 UTC was 4.9 [Raw 4.0].
Maximum 10 minute mean winds for Severe TC Owen is estimated to be 75 knots.

There is good confidence in the location from radar and satellite imagery.
Recent motion ove the last 12 hours has been  slower than expected motion
towards the east southeast. It is expected the cyclone will pick up speed during
Friday as it heads into eastern Gulf of Carpentaria.

CIMSS shear was around 10 knots from the north northwest at 18UTC.

There is strong consensus across all models that Owen will continue to move east
during Friday due to an amplifying middle level trough and cut off low sweeping
across SE Australia. The majority of the models take Owen over the SE Gulf of
Carpentaria, with landfall most likely later on Friday between Gilbert River
Mouth to Pormpuraaw.

The system is likely to intensify over the next 24 hours as it moves eastwards
over water. The environment over the Gulf of Carpentaria is favourable for
development with SSTs 30-31C and low to moderate wind shear in the short term.
Westerly wind shear is likely to increase during Friday as the middle level
trough over SE Australia approaches, however if the system were to move a little
further north the shear may remain favourable. Deep moisture surrounds the
system. Good poleward upper outflow is visible from satellite imagery.

In the longer term, Owen is expected to track close to or move off the eastern
Queensland coast during the weekend. Both EC and GFS maintain a strong system
with gales over eastern quadrants in the long term. Recent model runs show the
system then moving back towards the west and quickly weakening inland on Monday.
Embedded deep within the mid-lat westerlies, ETT may be a possibility. However
GFS cyclone phase prognostic suggests it retains its warm core. Either way,
gales and significant rainfall are possible along the central Qld coast this
weekend or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0200 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2011, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533
532).  Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the
conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements
(http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml).
MSL Analysis provided by the Bureau of Meteorology
 
 
Disclaimer: Do not base any important decisions on any information that you may receive from this site. Weather data from this site is a representation of current and past conditions in this local area and includes links to other sites. Do not use this information for emergency situations. In emergencies, please refer to the Bureau of Meteorology warning page: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/warnings.shtml.